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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The tropical depression remains sheared, and convection has
decreased since this afternoon.  The initial intensity has been held
at 25 kt based on a blend of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications.  Little change in intensity is forecast for the
next few days.  The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that the strong
easterly wind shear will not decrease for the next 36 to 48 hours,
which should prevent significant strengthening and could cause the
cyclone to quickly become a remnant low.  After that time, the
forecast becomes more complicated since the depression, or its
remnants, may interact with another surface low pressure system
forecast to develop over the open East Pacific.  As a result of
this proximity,  some of the model trackers depict strengthening
near the end of the forecast period.  Because most of the models
depict the other developing low as the dominant system in any
potential interaction, I am electing to discount that possibility
for now.  The official forecast instead shows the depression
becoming a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipating entirely
sometime after 96 h, similar to the previous advisory.

The depression is moving just south of due west at 13 kt.  The low-
to mid-level components of a ridge located to the north should keep
the cyclone moving generally westward through the forecast period,
until it dissipates. The ECMWF solution seems to be the most
reasonable of the dynamical models because it keeps the depression
separate from any other developing low pressure systems. The new
official forecast track is therefore most similar to the ECMWF, and
is not significantly different from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 15.4N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 15.3N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:10:28 UTC