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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...FOURTEEN-E COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING....


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 108.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* west of La Paz to Loreto
* mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of the large disturbance was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 108.6 West.  The system
has been stationary recently, but it expected to move slowly toward
the north-northwest during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday, and near or west
of Baja California Sur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by
tonight, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early
Friday.

The disturbance appears to be forming a better defined center, and
only a small increase in organization would lead to the formation of
a tropical depression or storm.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in mainland Mexico
starting late on Thursday, and in the watch area in Baja California
Sur on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja
California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of
20 inches.  In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima,
southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. This rain could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and east of the center over
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and western Mexico.  These swells will
likely reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later
today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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