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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
600 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...LARGE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.8 North, longitude 108.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A slower north-northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by
tonight, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early
Friday.

The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a
small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to
the formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco today.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20
inches possible along the immediate coast.  This rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells will likely reach
the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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