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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED....


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 108.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward
along the east coast of Baja California Sur to east of La Paz.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning in
Baja California Sur from north of Todos Santos to Santa Fe and from
north of Los Barriles to La Paz.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
west of La Paz to Loreto on the east coast of Baja California Sur
and on the mainland from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* west of La Paz to Loreto
* mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.3 North, longitude 108.6 West.  The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A slower north-northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday, and near or west
of Baja California Sur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight,
and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a
small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to
the formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in mainland Mexico
starting late on Thursday, and in the watch area in Baja California
Sur on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja
California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of
20 inches.  In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima,
southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. This rain could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and east of the center over
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and western Mexico.  These swells will
likely reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later
today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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