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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 107.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical
Storm Warning for the coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos
to Los Barriles including Cabo San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.2 North, longitude 107.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will
approach the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the system
could become a hurricane late Thursday.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the watch area by Thursday.  Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20
inches possible along the immediate coast.  This rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

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