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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO... FOR
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM WEST OF LA PAZ TO SAN
EVARISTO... AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH
OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO SAN EVARISTO
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO
* NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.3N 110.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 28.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:10:12 UTC