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Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-E (Text)


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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.6N 109.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 109.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Dec-2017 12:10:18 UTC