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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM
TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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