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Tropical Storm KENNETH (Text)


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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Practically all of Kenneth's deep convection has dissipated while
the system traverses SSTs near 23 deg C.  Using a blend of
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields a
current intensity of 35 kt.  The cyclone is likely to continue to
weaken due to cool waters and strong south-southwesterly shear
associated with a broad upper-level trough to its west.  Kenneth
should become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24 hours or sooner.

The latest center fixes indicate that the motion has bent a little
to the left and is now around 330/10 kt.  Kenneth or the post-
tropical cyclone should continue to move through a break in the
subtropical ridge on a generally north-northwestward heading with
some deceleration over the next couple of days.  Later in the
forecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and
shallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the
low-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the latest
HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 24.6N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 25.8N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 28.6N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 29.7N 137.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z 30.7N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:10:11 UTC