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Tropical Storm KENNETH (Text)


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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth continues to slowly weaken.  The eye feature that was
evident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS
microwave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to
southerly shear.  A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 55-60 kt range.  Assuming some weakening since
the time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt.
This estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin.

Kenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and
moving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear.
These hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening,
and the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low
in 36 hours.  The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as
depicted by the global models.  This intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one.

The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the
west side of a mid-level ridge.  This general motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while
the system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge.  By the
end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn
to the northwest in the low-level flow.  Little change was made to
the previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest
to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:10:28 UTC