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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017
Kenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in
coverage and intensity. The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs
below 25 deg C, and continues to weaken. Using a blend of Dvorak T-
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate
of 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength. Continued
weakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system
moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State
University Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a
depression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.
The initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt. There is no need
to make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous
advisory package. Kenneth should continue to move through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough
near 140W longitude. Later in the forecast period, the shallow
vortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow. The
official track forecast is only slightly to the right of the
consensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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