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Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017
Kenneth is gradually strengthening. Satellite images show that the
cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast and curved bands
beyond that feature, especially to the south of the center. The
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt, and
recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
about the same. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased a little to 65 kt, making Kenneth a category 1 hurricane.
The initial motion of the hurricane is the same as before, 280/13
kt. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected to occur on Monday as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of
the system weakens. After that time, Kenneth is expected to move
even slower to the north-northwest when it moves into a break in the
ridge caused by a cut-off low near the southwestern United States.
Overall the models are in fair agreement with this scenario, but
they differ in where and when Kenneth begins to recurve. The
consensus aids have been quite consistent over the past few cycles,
and this forecast is largely just an update of the previous one.
The environmental conditions are conducive for Kenneth to strengthen
some more during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
however, cooler waters along the expected track and drier air
should end the strengthening trend and cause weakening. In
addition, the global models show a significant increase in
southerly shear beginning in about 72 hours, which should aid in
the weakening trend. The intensity models are in very good
agreement, and little change was made to the previous forecast.
Kenneth will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days
when it will be over SSTs of about 23 deg C.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 16.3N 127.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 16.8N 129.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 23.7N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 26.7N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW