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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A couple of recent microwave overpasses has revealed that the center
of Kenneth remains near the northeastern edge of the deep
convection. Although the upper-level outflow is well established
over the southwestern and western portions of the circulation, it is
somewhat restricted over the northeastern quadrant due to about 15
kt of shear as diagnosed by a UW-CIMSS shear analysis. Subjective
and objective Dvorak T-numbers are around 3.0 (45 kt) from the
various agencies, but the initial wind speed is conservatively
raised to 40 kt, since I would rather wait to see visible satellite
images to get a better handle on Kenneth's structure.

Kenneth is moving west-northwestward, 285 degrees, at 14 kt.  The
tropical storm is moving around the southwestern portion of a low-
to mid-level ridge that is located just west of the southern Baja
peninsula.  Kenneth is expected to reach the western portion of the
ridge in about 48 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward, then north-northwestward later in the period.  The
track guidance remains in good agreement through 48 hours, but
diverges after that time.  The latest run of the GFS has shifted a
little westward, but remains along the eastern side of the guidance
envelope, with the ECMWF along the western edge.  The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged westward to be closer to the various
consensus aids that have generally shifted in that direction this
cycle.

The global models predict that the upper-level wind pattern over
Kenneth should become more conducive for strengthening over the next
day or so.  During that time Kenneth will be moving over SSTs of 27
to 28C, which should allow for intensification, and the NHC foreast
once again brings Kenneth to hurricane strength on Sunday.  After 48
hours, decreasing SSTs should result in gradual weakening.  The
updated NHC intensity foreast is a little above the statistical
guidance and ICON consensus model through 48 hours, but is
generally close to the HFIP corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 15.8N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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