ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Jova Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Satellite images show the exposed center of Jova continuing to move westward with a burst of convection about 50 n mi away in the southwest quadrant. Dvorak classifications suggest the maximum winds are still about 30 kt. The depression should gradually spin down due to strong vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and entrainment of the stable air mass of the northeastern Pacific. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on this environment so the new NHC prediction is very similar to the previous one. Remnant low status is anticipated in about 24 hours, although predicting convective trends over marginally warm waters is difficult. Jova is moving faster to the west now at about 13 kt. A subtropical ridge should build to the north of the cyclone, steering the depression, or its remnants, to the west or west-southwest until it opens up into a trough in 3-4 days. The global and hurricane models are in good agreement on this scenario as well, and the new NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 20.8N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 20.8N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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