ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122017 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 First-light visible imagery from the experimental GOES-16 satellite revealed that the circulation of Jova is very disorganized. The cyclone is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level high centered over northwestern Mexico. Since the convective organization hasn't changed significantly since the last advisory, the intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. There is no indication that the 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear currently affecting the tropical storm will decrease enough to allow for any intensification during the next day or so. After about 24 h, Jova will move into an environment of lower SSTs and drier mid- to upper-level air, which should contribute to gradual weakening. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models suggest that deep convection will cease in about 48 h, so the forecast shows Jova becoming a remnant low at that time. The center was relocated to the north by about 30 n mi based on the first-light visible imagery. As a result, the NHC forecast track has been shifted northward, especially for the first 48 h. Aside from the initial position uncertainty, there is fairly good agreement among the models that a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico across most of the tropical eastern North Pacific will cause Jova to turn westward within the next 12-24 hours. Jova should then continue moving steadily westward along the southern periphery of the ridge until eventual dissipation around or just after 96 h. The official forecast is basically an average of the GFS and ECMWF models, which only differ in how quickly Jova initially turns toward the west. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 20.6N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 20.7N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 20.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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