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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017

The tropical depression lost most of its deep convection overnight,
but a small burst near the center has occurred this morning.  Since
that time, the center has become again nearly devoid of convection,
but I can't yet rule out that one more burst could occur later
today.  The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier
ASCAT data, but this could be generous given the lack of convection.

No change has been made to the intensity forecast.  Vertical wind
shear remains high, and cloud-drift winds from GOES-W indicate that
upper-level winds near the depression are between 40 and 50 kt from
the east-northeast.  The upper-level winds are not expected to
lessen, and the available moisture should decrease steadily as the
depression moves farther away from its parent disturbance and
into a much drier environment.  Combined, these factors should cause
the depression to become a remnant low as early as this afternoon.

The forward speed of the depression has slowed since the circulation
is mostly limited to the low levels, and the initial motion
estimate is 325/7 kt.  During the overnight hours that the cyclone
lacked deep convection, it moved slowly north or
north-northwestward, so the track has been shifted to the right.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the track forecast were
required, and the cyclone, or its remnants, should be steered
generally northwestward in light low-level steering flow until
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 19.6N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 20.2N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:10:11 UTC