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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017
 
The tropical depression is displaying a well-defined center of
circulation east of decaying cold cloud tops as shown in the
beautiful 1-minute experimental visible imagery from the new
GOES-16 satellite. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB - along
with the character of the tight center - suggest that the maximum
winds remain about 30 kt.
 
However, the exposed center of this system is symptomatic of a
highly sheared environment due to the 30 kt upper-level easterlies
impinging upon Eleven-E.  These shearing winds should not relent as
a strong mid- to upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico will
remain in place.  Additionally, the tropical depression will be
moving into increasingly dry and stable air.  The system should lose
all deep convection and become a remnant low in a day or two, which
is in agreement with all dynamical and statistical guidance.
 
Eleven-E is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt, mainly due
to the aforementioned ridge to its north.  As the tropical
depression loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex,
it should drift slowly northwestward or northward in weak low-level
flow.  The official track forecast is adjusted to the right
(northeastward) of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA
corrected consensus technique.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 18.6N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 19.3N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 20.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 21.3N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:10:08 UTC