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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the
low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center.  Deep
convection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western
portion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and
SAB are a consensus 1.5.  Based on these factors, the system has
been classified as a 25-kt tropical depression.

The depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an
upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not
expected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the
system weak.  In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests
that the system will ever become a tropical storm.  The intensity
forecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system
becomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent
shear and a drier environment.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at
13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the
center has only recently become well defined.  Since the cyclone is
forecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low-
to mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge.  The GFS
and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the
depression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day
or two.  After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow
down substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track
forecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:10:17 UTC