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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102014
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern
Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The
disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has
finally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified
as a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the
month of July.

The center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of
deep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is
being assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The depression is in
between TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for
strengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease
of the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some
intensification.

The depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving
toward the west at about 6 kt.  The nose of the ridge is forecast to
amplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the
cyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next
five days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one
must use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical
Depression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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