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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Visible images confirm that the depression is not very well
organized with limited banding features and a partially exposed
center.  ASCAT and satellite classfications suggest that the winds
have dropped to 25 kt, and this will be the initial wind speed.

Cirrus cloud motions show that the northwesterly shear continues to
impinge on the depression.  While this shear could abate somewhat
tomorrow, it is likely to quickly resume again by Friday due to
enhanced upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Greg.  Thus little
change in intensity is shown in the new NHC intensity forecast, in
line with the latest guidance, with some weakening expected on
Friday.  It would not be surprising if the circulation of the
depression opened up into a trough during the next day or two.

The initial motion of the depression is west-southwest at 5 kt.  The
system should move to the southwest or south-southwest around the
circulation of Tropical Storm Greg for the next day or two.  Model
guidance has come into better agreement that Greg will be the
dominant cyclone, and the track is shifted southward from the
previous one.  By 72 hours, all of the global models open up the
depression into a trough as the weak system gets pulled
northwestward toward Greg.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 13.6N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 12.9N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 12.3N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 12.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:10:07 UTC