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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little
since the previous advisory and remains ragged looking. Cloud tops
colder than -70C have persisted near and to the south of the
low-level center, yielding satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from
SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the intensity will remain at 30 kt
for this advisory since a 0500Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated a few
wind vectors of 27-28 kt in the southwestern quadrant.

The initial motion estimate is 20/05 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and
regional models are in decent agreement on the depression engaging
in some weak binary interaction with the larger circulation of
Tropical Storm Greg as the latter cyclone passes about 200 nmi to
the north over the next few days. The new forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory track and lies near the TVCN consensus
model.

The upper-level westerly outflow on the east of Hurricane Fernanda
is expected to keep the depression in a moderate to strong vertical
wind shear regime for the next couple of days. After that,
northerly outflow from Greg should act to maintain unfavorable
shear conditions across the depression, preventing any significant
strengthening until the system dissipates by 96 hours. The new
intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and
follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 14.6N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 13.8N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 13.3N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 12.9N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 13.2N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Dec-2017 12:10:03 UTC