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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located
well southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to
the system's center overnight.  It has also produced convection for
more than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear.  Based on the
recent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of
2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt
tropical depression.

A large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently
imparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system.  The shear is not
expected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight
strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that
time.  After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become
less hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the
tropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days.
The latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence.

The depression has been moving slowly westward or west-
northwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion
later today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical
Storm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes
to its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west-
northwestward at a faster forward speed.  An alternative
scenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to
weaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days.
Given the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the
track forecast is also quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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