ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Greg's cloud pattern remains unimpressive, with a rather disorganized area of convection found to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The latest Dvorak estimates are about the same as before, so the initial intensity estimate remains 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the first 24 hours, as the near-storm environment is not expected to change much during that time. Afterward, however, the usually lethal combination of cooling SSTs and a drying low- to mid-level atmosphere, along with increasing shear at days 4-5, should bring about the gradual demise of Greg. Remnant low status is now forecast by 96 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast is in line with the bulk of the latest guidance. A timely SSMIS pass from 23/0005Z was helpful in establishing the initial position of Greg, which is a little south and west of previous estimates. Based on this, the initial motion estimate is 265/11, as Greg continues moving to the south of an expansive low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge will begin to weaken in 48-72 hours, which should result in Greg turning a little more poleward during that time with a slight decrease in forward speed. By the end of the period, the shallow remnants of Greg should turn westward in the low-level trade wind flow over the central Pacific. Based on the initial position and the trend in the latest guidance, the new NHC track forecast is faster and has been adjusted to the left of the previous forecast, especially at days 3 through 5. The NHC prediction is close to the latest consensus aids through day 3, but lies a bit to the right of those aids at days 4 and 5 out of respect to continuity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.9N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.9N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.8N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:13 UTC