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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 124.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.9N 125.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.7N 128.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.4N 130.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 132.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.7N 135.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 138.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 141.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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