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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 117.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 117.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 117.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 117.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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