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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 111.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.6N 117.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 13.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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