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Hurricane FERNANDA (Text)


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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017


Fernanda's cloud pattern has continued to decay with shrinking and
weakening convection, while microwave imagery suggests that the
inner core has collapsed. In fact, it appears that the mid- and low-
levels are beginning to separate.  Intensity estimates from all
agencies reflect such decay, and based on Dvorak T-numbers, the
maximum winds have been reduced to 65 kt, and this could be
generous.  A large portion of the circulation is already over cooler
waters, and this factor, in combination with increasing shear
and the presence of dry air should result in additional weakening,
as indicated in the NHC forecast.

Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt.
The cyclone is well embedded within the deep trade winds associated
with the southern portion of the subtropical high. This steering
pattern will likely persist, so no significant change in track is
anticipated. A slight turn toward the west is expected by the end of
the forecast period when Fernanda will likely be a shallow cyclone
steered by the low-level trades. The NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 18.2N 137.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 18.6N 138.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 19.6N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 20.2N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 21.5N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 22.5N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z 23.5N 156.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:10:00 UTC