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Hurricane FERNANDA (Text)


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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Enhanced Infrared BD-curve GOES-15 imagery indicates considerable
cooling of the eye this evening.  In fact, the eye has cooled nearly
30 degrees C during the past 6 hours, and is no longer visible
in conventional imagery.  A blend of Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for
this advisory.  The cyclone should continue on a steady weakening
trend during the next 48 hours as it traverses decreasing oceanic
SSTs and moves into a more thermodynamically stable air mass.
Toward the end of the forecast period, increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a developing cut-off low north of the Hawaiian
Islands is expected to further support a gradual spin-down of
Fernanda.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects weakening to a
post-tropical cyclone in 4 days, and further degenerating to a
remnant low at day-5.  The forecast is again based primarily on the
IVCN consensus model.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt.
The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged for this
advisory.  Fernanda is expected to turn toward the west-northwest
during the next 24 hours and continue on that general heading
through day 5 in response to a subtropical ridge reestablishing to
the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  The official forecast has
been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory and
lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), and the GFS/ECMWF
(GFEX) model blend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 16.5N 134.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 17.1N 135.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.8N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 18.3N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 18.8N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 19.7N 143.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 20.6N 146.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/0000Z 21.5N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Dec-2017 12:09:58 UTC