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Hurricane FERNANDA (Text)


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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Fernanda's satellite presentation has become even more impressive
than earlier today, with the eye becoming more distinct on
geostationary and microwave imagery.  The upper-level outflow is
well-defined over all quadrants, with a fairly symmetric CDO.
There are also banding features over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation.  Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are near
6.0 corresponding to an intensity of 115 kt, and that value will be
used for the advisory intensity.  It may be of interest that it is
quite unusual to have a hurricane this strong so far south in the
eastern North Pacific basin.

Fernanda will remain in a low-shear environment for the next few
days, with high oceanic heat content. Based on the trends over the
past 24 hours, the official intensity forecast is above most of the
numerical guidance.  One complication to the forecast is the
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is not accounted
for here.  Late in the forecast period somewhat cooler waters and,
by day 5, some increase in shear should cause weakening.

The initial motion remains near 265/10 kt.  There has not been
much change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous
couple of advisories.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north
of Fernanda should induce a westward to west-northwestward track for
the next several days.  Some decrease in forward speed is likely
later in the period when the tropical cyclone nears a weakness
or col region of the ridge.  The official track forecast is a blend
of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 10.7N 119.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 11.3N 123.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 11.9N 126.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 12.5N 128.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 15.4N 136.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 16.5N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Dec-2017 12:10:16 UTC