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Tropical Storm EUGENE (Text)


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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Eugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C.
The central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the
current intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak
CI numbers from SAB and TAFB.  Although the storm continues to
exhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will
be moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days.
Continued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast
is very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should
degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

The motion remains near 325/9.  There are no important changes to
the track forecast reasoning.  A mid-level anticyclone to the
northeast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward
heading for the next few days, and until dissipation.  A slight
leftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening
cyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow.  The official
forecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus
prediction.

Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during
the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current
conditions.  Please refer to statements issued by your local weather
office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:58 UTC