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Hurricane EUGENE (Text)


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Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The convective structure of Eugene is losing organization and the
ragged eye is no longer apparent in the shortwave infrared imagery.
However, an 0952Z AMSR2 and 1311Z GMI microwave passes still
indicated a well-defined eye in the 37 and 89 GHz frequencies.
Moreover, these images suggest about a 20 nm S-N tilt between the
near-surface center and the mid-level center apparent in the
geostationary imagery.  This is consistent with the 15 kt of
southerly vertical shear diagnosed by CIMSS.

The intensity is reduced to 75 kt, from a blend of the SAB and TAFB
subjective Dvorak estimates and the objective ADT value.  Eugene
should move perpendicular across the large SST gradient during the
next two days and reach 22C water on Wednesday.  This along with the
dry air that has been advecting toward the center of the hurricane
should cause steady - if not rapid - weakening.  It is anticipated
that Eugene will lose deep convection in about two days and become a
remnant low.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the HCCA
corrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than the
previous advisory.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, primarily
being steered by a large mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane.  As Eugene loses its deep convection in a couple days,
it should be advected along in the low-level tradewinds until
dissipation in about five or six days.  The official track forecast
is based upon the variable consensus method - TVCN - and is slightly
north of the previous advisory.

Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California
during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip
current conditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your
local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 18.7N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 20.0N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 22.9N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 24.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z 26.4N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z 27.9N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:58 UTC