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Hurricane EUGENE (Text)


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Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017

Eugene continues to have a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. A blend of both objective and subjective Dvorak
T-numbers from all agencies yield an initial intensity of 100 kt.

The hurricane has the opportunity to strengthen a little more
within the next 12 hours or so, before the circulation of
Eugene begins to move over cooler waters of 24 degrees Celsius or
lower. After that time, weakening should begin, and the cyclone
should become post-tropical in about 3 days. This forecast follows
both statistical models and the consensus.

Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within a well established steering flow around
a mid-level ridge over the western United States, and this pattern
will keep Eugene on the same general track for the next 3 days.
Once the cyclone weakens, it could turn more to the west-northwest
with the low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the consensus
primarily during the next 3 days and does not depart much from the
previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 16.7N 115.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z 26.5N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 12:09:51 UTC