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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an
eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has
been diminishing. The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a
blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is
currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora
will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system
should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a
remnant low in 48 hours, or less. The official intensity forecast
is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.
Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11
kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should
maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in
forward speed, over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more
westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated. The
official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but
south of the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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