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Hurricane DORA (Text)


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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has
degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall
convection noted in the northwestern quadrant.  Dvorak estimates
are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.
Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should
cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance
has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm
later today and a tropical depression by Thursday.  The NHC
intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT
confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types
of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern
Pacific waters.  It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated
faster than shown below.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt.  A large deep-layer
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a
west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally
westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by
day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle,
perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current
time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit
north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:09:58 UTC