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Tropical Storm CALVIN (Text)


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Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Surface observations and various satellite data, along with radar
information from Puerto Angel, Mexico, indicate that the
center of Calvin made landfall around 13/0000 UTC about midway
between Salina Cruz and Puerto Angel, near Paja Blanca.

The initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt over the past 6 hours after
smoothing through the various wobbles in the track. The center of
Calvin is now inland over southeastern Mexico based on surface
observations. Calvin is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest or west over the next 12-24 hours as the cyclone
moves along the southern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and
also along the front range of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track
and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.

Now that Calvin has moved inland, steady weakening should ensue
shortly and continue through Tuesday due to interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico. Tropical depression
status has been maintained at the 12- and 24-hour periods due to the
possibility of 25-30 kt winds remaining over water to the south of
the Calvin's center.

The primary danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.0N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  13/1200Z 16.1N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/0000Z 16.3N  96.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/1200Z 16.5N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Dec-2017 12:09:49 UTC