ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better organized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway around the southern portion of the circulation. Accordingly, Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5, corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt. On this basis, the system is being named. Although a little more intensification is possible before the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in strength is anticipated. After landfall, the tropical cyclone will likely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico. Although the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible satellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological service of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion has resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt. Although steering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that there should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to push the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution. The main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.0N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0600Z 16.2N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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