ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since yesterday, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 30 kt which will be the advisory intensity. There is still a small window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a tropical storm before the center reaches the coast. However, moderate easterly shear should prevent a significant increase in intensity. The official intensity forecast continues to be close to the model consensus. Even with the first visible images, the center is difficult to locate and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/3 kt. The depression is in an environment of weak steering currents, but the global models show some increased ridging to the northwest of the tropical cyclone over the next day or so. This should induce a west-northwestward motion that would bring the center near/over the coast by tonight. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus. The primary hazard associated with this system is heavy rainfall, which will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in regions of mountainous terrain. The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm Warning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone continues moving away from the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 15.7N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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