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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
at 30 kt which will be the advisory intensity.   There is still a
small window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a
tropical storm before the center reaches the coast.  However,
moderate easterly shear should prevent a significant increase in
intensity.  The official intensity forecast continues to be close to
the model consensus.

Even with the first visible images, the center is difficult to
locate and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/3 kt.
The depression is in an environment of weak steering currents, but
the global models show some increased ridging to the northwest of
the tropical cyclone over the next day or so.  This should induce a
west-northwestward motion that would bring the center near/over the
coast by tonight.  The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.

The primary hazard associated with this system is heavy rainfall,
which will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially
in regions of mountainous terrain.  The eastern portion of the
Tropical Storm Warning could be discontinued later today if the
cyclone continues moving away from the area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.4N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 15.7N  95.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/0000Z 16.3N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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