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Tropical Depression THREE-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is poorly organized
at this time, with episodic bursts of convection occurring near the
center and in the northwestern semicircle.  This is likely due to
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, and there have been
no observation from near the center since the last advisory.  Based
on the above, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The motion has been somewhat erratic, and the best estimate of a
longer-term motion is 325/3.  The depression is in a area of light
steering currents south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge
caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The guidance agrees that the cyclone should move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 36-48 h, with
the center likely to move inland over southeastern Mexico in 24 h or
less and then remaining inland.  The new forecast track is similar
to, but just south of, the previous forecast and it lies near the
center of the guidance envelope.  It should be noted that due to
the overall slow forward speed the center could continue to move
erratically between now and landfall.

The cyclone is expected to remain over warm water in an environment
of moderate shear until landfall, and thus gradual intensification
to tropical-storm strength is expected.  This portion of the
intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance, and an
alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone never becomes a
tropical storm.  The intensity forecast has been changed after
landfall to show a faster dissipation over the mountains of Mexico
in agreement with the various dynamical models.

The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.  The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone continues
moving away from the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 15.3N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 15.7N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 16.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1800Z 16.4N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:52 UTC