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Tropical Depression THREE-E (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has waned
considerably since the previous advisory due to the entrainment of
dry air and moderate easterly vertical wind shear, resulting in the
low-level circulation center now being fully exposed. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are T1.5 from TAFB and T1.0 from SAB,
so the initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt, which is
probably generous.

The initial motion estimate is 335/04 kt. After a northward jog
during the previous 6-hour period, the depression appears to have
slowed down and turned back toward the north-northwest during the
past few hours. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn toward the
northwest tonight and early Monday, and possibly even turn toward
the west-northwest by Monday night as a ridge to the northeast of
the cyclone builds slowly westward. However, most of the reliable
guidance models indicate that the steering currents are expected to
be weak at less than 5 kt for the next 48 hours. As a result, some
erratic motion will be possible. The official track forecast lies to
the right of the previous advisory track and a little to the left of
the consensus models to account for the slower initial motion.

The depression is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 29 deg C
and under the influence of moderate easterly shear of around 15 kt
for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is
expected, especially given the tight, low-level inner-core structure
noted in visible and other satellite channels. The previous
intensity forecast calling for the cyclone to reach tropical storm
status before landfall occurs has been retained in this advisory,
and the official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus
model IVCN. Although the cyclone is expected to be inland at 36 and
48 hours, tropical depression status is shown at those times due to
the possibility of 30-kt winds remaining along or just offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico by 72 hours.

The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 15.2N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 15.6N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 16.0N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1200Z 16.3N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/0000Z 16.4N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:09:56 UTC