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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Although the deep convection associated with the low pressure
system south of Mexico has decreased a little during the day, an
earlier ASCAT overpass revealed a well-defined surface circulation.
Therefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression
at this time.  The current intensity is set at 30 kt, although the
scatterometer data suggest that this could be a bit generous.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of
moderate easterly shear for the next day or two, and only slow
strengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast is
similar to the model consensus.  The system is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico in a few days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 320/4 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to move generally northwestward to west-northwestward to
the west of a mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and
move inland by Tuesday or sooner.  The official track forecast is a
blend of the latest ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS solutions.

Very heavy rains and the threat of flooding and mudslides should
be the primary concern with this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 14.5N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 14.7N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.2N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 15.6N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 15.9N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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