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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

ASCAT scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-40 kt
winds within 30 n mi of the center in the western semicircle.
Based on this, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Beatriz.  The center is nearing the coast at this time and the
central convection is poorly organized, so no additional
intensification is anticipated before landfall.  Beatriz should
weaken quickly over mountainous terrain after landfall, and it is
forecast to dissipate by 36 h.  The latest ECMWF and Canadian model
runs suggest the possibility the remnants of the cyclone could
regenerate over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  However, strong
vertical wind shear forecast over the Gulf by all of the large-scale
models makes this an uncertain scenario at best.

Even with the help of visible imagery and scatterometer data, there
is some spread in the center fix locations.  The initial motion is
thus a rather uncertain 025/4.  Southwesterly flow to the east of a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should
steer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and
dissipation.  The new forecast track is again similar to, but
slightly slower than the previous track.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides will continue to be the
biggest threats from this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 15.5N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.3N  96.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1800Z 17.4N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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