ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017 Tropical Depression Two-E has become a little less organized since the previous advisory. The central convection has decreased somewhat, with the primary convection now in a large band over the southeastern semicircle. In addition, visible imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. While satellite intensity estimates are at tropical storm strength, the initial intensity will remain 30 kt based on the decay in the cloud pattern and continuity from the previous advisory. While no intensification has occurred since yesterday, there is still potential for the system to become a tropical storm before landfall. After landfall, the low-level circulation should dissipate by 36 h over the mountains of Mexico. The large-scale models suggest that disturbed weather could occur over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days in association with the remnants of the depression. Recent microwave imagery has helped better locate the center, and the initial motion is 020/5. Southwesterly flow to the east of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should steer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and dissipation. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than the previous track. Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be the biggest threats from this system, and Puerto Angel, Mexico, has reported more than 6 inches of rain since yesterday. Given the potential for the depression to become a tropical storm, the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.4N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1200Z 16.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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