ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017 1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Adrian's satellite presentation is less organized than yesterday, with little evidence of convective banding features along with a few bursts of deep convection to the north and northwest of the estimated center. Vertical cross-sections through the latest GFS model analysis indicate a significant tilt of the vortex from southeast to northwest with height. This is consistent with analyses from UW-CIMSS that show around 20-25 kt of mid-level southeasterly shear across the tropical cyclone. This disruption of the vertical coherency of the system is likely one of the reasons that Adrian has not strengthened much. The current intensity is held at 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer data, although the latest Dvorak estimates and the disorganized cloud pattern suggest it might be a little weaker. The global models do not call for Adrian to intensify over the next several days, but the statistical/dynamical models still show the system becoming a hurricane within 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and close to the latest SHIPS prediction, and is of low confidence. Even with high-resolution visible imagery, the center is difficult to locate. Based mainly on microwave and scatterometer fixes, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Adrian should induce a northwestward to west-northwestward motion for the next several days. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is predicted to collapse, leaving the tropical cyclone in a region of very weak steering currents. Based on this expected evolution of the large-scale flow, the official track forecast shows no motion by days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 10.4N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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