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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Although the central convection has weakened during the past few
hours, the overall cloud pattern has changed very little in
organization. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
remain at T2.5 on the Dvorak scale. However, an ASCAT pass around
0400 UTC showed a few vectors of 40 kt, and this is the intensity
assigned to Adrian.

It is interesting to note that the GFS is basically the only
dynamical model that significantly intensifies Adrian. Both the HWRF
and the ECMWF do not. In fact, the latest ECMWF weakens the cyclone
to a broad area of low pressure within the next 5 days. Based on
continuity, the fact that Adrian is moving over warm waters and
the shear is low, gradual strengthening is still forecast.  The NHC
intensity forecast, however, is a little lower than indicated in the
previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 6 kt.  Adrian is expected to be steered on this
general track by a ridge of high pressure over Mexico and Central
America.  However, these currents are forecast to collapse in about
2 days leaving Adrian embedded within a very week steering flow.
The cyclone most likely will begin to meander well south of Mexico
in 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 10.0N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 10.6N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 11.1N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 11.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 12.0N  96.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 13.0N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 13.5N  96.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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