ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017 400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017 The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better organized, with developing convective banding features. Also, data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has developed. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C through the forecast period, and the global models show the system remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined outflow. Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus. Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the initial motion is 300/5 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to be situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days. This steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion through 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, the anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to the north. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 9.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 9.7N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 10.1N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 10.5N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 10.8N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 12.0N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 13.0N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 14.0N 96.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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