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Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

Rina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with
satellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure.
Still, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately
warm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core.  Thus,
Rina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the
initial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates.  Little
change in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection
within the next 24 hours over chilly waters.  The system should
become embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in
a day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland. No changes were made to
the previous intensity forecast.

The storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt.  A continued
acceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight
as Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes.  The
cyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday
and east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow.  The
westward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast
is still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that
direction in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 39.4N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 42.2N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 47.1N  44.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  10/0000Z 52.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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