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Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective
bands.  A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds
are near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak
classification from TAFB.  Based on these data, the initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

The depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the
initial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt.  A faster north to
north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level
ridge.  Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is
forecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come
into agreement with the latest consensus models.

Although the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to
be particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system,
baroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed
should cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next
couple of days.  The global models agree that the cyclone should
merge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical
transition.  The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually
weaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.  The guidance has trended a
little higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
that trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 29.5N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 30.8N  50.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 33.6N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 37.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 41.4N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 51.0N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 57.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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