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Hurricane OPHELIA


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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172017
1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  35.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  30SE  25SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  35.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  35.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.9N  34.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.6N  33.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.7N  30.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.4N  27.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.9N  18.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 230SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N  12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 60.5N   5.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  35.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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