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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.  A Hurricane Watch and a Storm
Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 84.3 West.  Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a
significant increase in forward speed.  On the forecast track, the
center of Nate should move across eastern Honduras this evening and
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.  The center
is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday
night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane
strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations into Saturday:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20
inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10
inches
Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western
Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near
and to the north of where the center of Nate makes landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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